Assessing Lake Response to Extreme Climate Change Using the Coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 Model: Case Study of Lake Zazari in Greece

Lakes, either artificial or natural, are greatly important as a component in their catchments’ hydrology, but also ecosystem service providers. However, due to climate change, they have begun face numerous problems with water quality and quantity. Furthermore, general circulation models (GCMs) show future change reduction rainfall increase temperature. The aim of the current study is present an application where GCMs state-of-the-art hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 combined for assessing response Greek lake terms its balance level under change. Four (GCMs; GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR) extreme scenario RCP8.5 were used basin Lake Zazari Greece case study. Results showed that, by keeping irrigated demands (the main user) unchanged future, exhibited lower all GCMs, fluctuating from ?0.70 ?1.8 m mean (min) ?0.30 ?1.20 (max) level. Instead above preserving amount withdraw n at certain percentage inflows, area should be reduced 54.1% 64.05% depending on model.